Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Earthquakes dont follow a particular time scale and saying something may happen in the next few hundred years is like saying I dont know what the hell I am talking about, they should join the treasury and just leave us alone. Plato’s Theory of Forms similar Torres Islanders’ beliefs, A Christian reconsiders the Resurrection of Christ, Science versus ‘populist voice’ on criminal justice, Little change in latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll, Claim that Peters was briefed on NZ First Foundation operations, Long campaign but still a fairly predictable outcome, Locked Up in New Zealand - Days of Covid-19 Lockdown — Estralians. Extensive details are at Project Alpine Fault 8. Credits: Newshub. Front page photograph: The Alpine Fault at Inchbonnie – Hohonus and Taramakau River looking east [L.Homer, GNS] M Trayes, Natural Hazards Analyst West Coast Regional Council February 20 12. Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if New Zealand’s most dangerous fault line ruptures, and there’s evidence the country is due for another big one. Your comment on climate change goes well with your first comment on this thread. The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Journalists get bored with climate alarmism tertorism and asteroid catastrophes. 16th May 2019 - New Zealand Government delivers strategy for sustainable tourism growth. The research has important earthquake hazard implications nationally by providing a much longer record and therefore a more reliable forecast of when the next major earthquake will occur on the southern section of the Alpine Fault. "Although Aotearoa New Zealand had been settled by Māori for about half a millennium when the earthquake occurred, oral histories of the event are rare. Granite mountains would stay more intact. Free speech for those who don't threaten free speech, Medicinal Cannabis, Links and Information, ‘Governments need more history graduates’. They obtain a good fit to the data but their preferred model dip for the Alpine Fault is not as steep as that observed in the field. The spine of the South Island’s most significant earthquake risk, the Alpine Fault, runs right through the Wakatipu. Quakes were rippling up & down the Lower NI & Upper SI, back & forth – epicentred all over the show. The earthquake will last for about two minutes. May 16,2018; Here is the complete series of videos which have been produced by the AF8 Project. A big quake on the Alpine Fault could block South Island highways in more than 120 places and leave 10,000 people cut off, new research has estimated. This image clearly shows the fault running up the West Coast, where the Australian plate dives under and drives up the Southern Alps which line along the rising edge of the Pacific Plate. I am more a ban plastic bags, low emission cars, keep the rivers clean, recycle everything possible, hydro power sort of a guy. 15 May 2018. It is known to produce magnitude 8 earthquakes approximately every 300 years. Possibly one feature of our risk is that the Pacific plate is schist to greywache (further from the fault). I could give you the papers behind the chart and a few more links . Threat of quake in alps wanes. Nature Geoscience, 2018; 12 (1): 69 DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0272-8 Bertrand Rouet-Leduc, Claudia Hulbert, Paul A. Johnson. When I was woken up by an earthquake in the middle of the night on 4 September 2010 I wondered if it was ‘the big one’ – it was big enough but that was centred close to Christchurch. The big landslide under the viaduct at Arthurs Pass came down 2000 years ago. The story is told instead by trees, sediments, and the landscape of the South Island's West Coast.". Pretty well everywhere in NZ will feel it if there’s a large rupture I’ve read – & you can bet Welly will get whacked hard. Reply. The Alpine Fault ruptures in a massive earthquake every 300 years, on average, and the last big one was in 1717. It has ruptured four times in the last 900 years, resulting in earthquakes of around magnitude 8, and is now considered highly probable to go again in the next 50 years. A massive earthquake on the South Island's Alpine Fault is predicted to shake Canterbury at a "much higher intensity" than previously thought, new research shows. A very badly made mountain. The … The scientists, emergency planners and numerous agencies involved in preparing for a future Alpine Fault earthquake have modelled the impacts of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault and highlighted the need for emergency agencies to work across boundaries during a future disaster, University of Otago research reveals. Generally the fault has a simple straight trace, striking ca. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. Last year marked the 300th anniversary of the last time it ruptured, moving the south-eastern side about eight metres relative to the north-western side in a matter of seconds. No Dave if the sun goes quite we expect temperatures to keep increasing . Here, it was like sitting on an overloaded washing machine on the spin cycle. The videos are intended to both warn and educate our community about the overdue Alpine Fault earthquake which is expected to be in the magnitude 8 range. I went straight on to Geonet when we felt the first big rock n roll from the first Sedden event series a couple of years back. What if the big one however many years ago settled the thing for eons and took most of the pressure out ? The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault occurred 295 years ago. Share on Twitter; Share on Facebook; Share via email; Share on Reddit; Share on Linked In ; Georgina McLean, Senior Digital Journalist. Change ). Gee mention climate change and Griff appears out of nowhere armed with pretty charts albeit meaningless ones but I appreciate the effort. ( Log Out /  An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. Date: 2018 Description: A magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault is predicted to happen during the lifetime of most New Zealanders alive today. "The timing of the disturbance that caused [a] decline [in growth] can be narrowed down to taking place after the 1716 growing season and before the end of the 1717 growing season - ie, the earthquake occurred early in the year 1717 AD.". There are contributions from scientists at GNS Science, the Universities of Victoria, Canterbury and Otago, and from overseas. … The Alpine Fault forms part of the on-land Pacific-Australian plate boundary. Date: 2012 Description: Scientists at GNS Science say Alpine Fault may not generate an 8.0 magnitude quake for another 200 years. Continuous chatter of … Movement along this fault has uplifted the Southern Alps and produced large earthquakes. Why do people believe in a non-existent Abrahamic God? A 2018 study says that a significant rupture in the Alpine Fault could lead to roads (particularly in or to the West Coast) being blocked for months, as with the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, with problems in supplying towns and evacuating tourists. The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. The special issue was due to coincide with the 300th anniversary, but research into the Kaikoura quake - one of the most complex ever recorded - took priority. Related Articles. The fault line along the South Island ruptures roughly every 300 years. 3 Appendix 1, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012, M Trayes The Alpine Fault. Deluded Dave. Geologically, this is a high probability. 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